Fantasy · DraftKings Pick6 edge
Pitcher strikeouts · calibrated Negative-Binomial model · slate 2026-07-05 · PAPER ONLY
Paper track record
Out-of-sample leg calibration: no graded legs yet
Today's power-play entries
| # | legs | P(win) | mult | EV | stake |
|---|
| 1 | Lodolo L5.5 + Weathers L5.5 same-side | 47.2% | 3.0× | +42% | $20.00 |
All board legs scored
| pitcher | game | DK line | λ | pick | model P | RW proj | RW | play |
|---|
| Nick Lodolo | BAL@CIN | 5.5 | 4.29 | LESS | 72.6% | — | · | ✓ |
| Ryan Weathers | MIN@NYY | 5.5 | 4.81 | LESS | 64.6% | — | · | ✓ |
| Joe Ryan | MIN@NYY | 6.5 | 7.72 | MORE | 61.0% | — | · | |
| Trey Yesavage | TOR@SEA | 5.5 | 5.05 | LESS | 60.9% | — | · | |
| Martin Perez | NYM@ATL | 4.5 | 4.17 | LESS | 60.0% | 3.9 | ✓ | |
| Luinder Avila | PHI@KC | 4.5 | 5.30 | MORE | 58.2% | — | · | |
| Kumar Rocker | DET@TEX | 4.5 | 5.14 | MORE | 55.7% | — | · | |
| Aaron Nola | PHI@KC | 5.5 | 5.48 | LESS | 54.5% | — | · | |
| Casey Mize | DET@TEX | 5.5 | 5.66 | LESS | 51.8% | — | · | |
| Nolan McLean | NYM@ATL | 6.5 | 6.67 | LESS | 51.7% | 5.1 | ✓ | |
| Kyle Bradish | BAL@CIN | 6.5 | 6.87 | MORE | 50.8% | 6.4 | ✗ | |
| Emerson Hancock | TOR@SEA | 4.5 | 4.80 | MORE | 50.6% | — | · | |
RW = RotoWire second opinion: ✓ agrees · ✗ disagrees (gated out) · · no free projection
⚠️ Paper only. The model's dispersion was fit in-sample; entries are staked
hypothetically at quarter-Kelly. Nothing here is betting advice. Verify every DK line and multiplier before acting.